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Astral Codex Ten’s Open Thread 456 is a weekly community post combining open discussion with updates on meetups, local election guides, an AI grantmaking survey and projects from people connected to the blog. It also highlights MNX, a real-money prediction market focused on AI, and Common Notes, a proposed community-notes system for content across the web.
Astral Codex Ten published Open Thread 456, a weekly community post that invites readers to discuss any topic while sharing updates on meetups, election guides and AI-related projects. The post also solicits survey responses about how to value AI safety accomplishments and introduces a real-money prediction market focused on AI.
The thread says meetup arrangements have changed in Rockville, Northampton, Eindhoven, Great Barrington, Cairo, Portland and Sofia, directing readers to the post for specifics. It also gives advance notice of a Bay Area ACX meetup scheduled for Saturday, October 24, at 1 p.m. at Mox, 1680 Mission St. in San Francisco. The post says a separate announcement may follow.
The Boston ACX meetup group has completed a Greater Boston general election voting guide, according to the post. Its author says there may be more guides in the following week and that work on a Bay Area guide is still under consideration. The post also points to a same-day deadline for San Francisco mail-in ballot registration and identifies Scott Wiener for Congress as the group’s main San Francisco endorsement. These are statements in the post; it does not provide the guide’s recommendations or further details about the endorsement.
For AI grantmaking research, the author is asking people familiar with AI and grantmaking to complete a survey assigning utility weights to about 80 AI safety accomplishments. An alternate survey asks respondents to predict how the author would answer the first one, which the post says could help separate differences in worldview from random variation in assigning weights. The thread also describes MNX, a real-money prediction market on AI, and Common Notes, a project combining AI-generated notes, user contributions and voting, and a browser extension.
Community Projects Meet AI Funding
The post matters mainly as a coordination point for a readership whose activities extend beyond online discussion. It connects local groups with meetup changes and election resources, while giving readers ways to participate in research and new projects related to AI. The voting guide and registration reminder may be time-sensitive for readers in the named area, although the post does not reproduce the guide or explain eligibility requirements.
The grantmaking survey is aimed at gathering judgments about the value of different AI safety accomplishments. Its results could inform the author’s effort to model parts of AI grantmaking, but the thread does not say how responses will be analyzed or whether the work will affect actual funding decisions. MNX and Common Notes are described as projects, not independently evaluated services: the post offers readers an introduction, but supplies no performance data or evidence about their reach.
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A Weekly ACX Community Bulletin
Open Thread 456 is presented as Astral Codex Ten’s weekly visible open thread, where readers can post about any subject or ask informal questions. The post also points to the blog’s unofficial subreddit, Discord, bulletin board and in-person meetups. It says most content is free, with some available to subscribers.
The announcements bring together several separate efforts rather than reporting one central launch. The author says they are continuing work on modeling—and possibly eventually automating—some aspects of AI grantmaking, and refers readers to previous efforts. The new survey is part of that ongoing work. Separately, the thread relays project news from people associated with the blog, including Manifold Markets co-founder Stephen Grugett’s announcement of MNX and Goodheart Labs’ work on Common Notes.
On the prediction-market comparison, the post says that despite discussion of Anthropic’s API value falling from $2 trillion to $1.5 trillion, Polymarket and MNX were still pricing it at around $2 trillion. The thread does not specify the contract terms, the exact time of those prices, or what measure of value the figures represent, so they should be read as the author’s snapshot rather than a verified valuation of Anthropic.
“This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever.”
— Astral Codex Ten post author
AI safety accomplishment survey tools
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Project Details Still Limited
The post does not provide full details for the meetup changes, the Boston voting guide or the proposed Bay Area guide. It also does not state whether the survey results will be published, how respondents will be selected, or how the answers might inform grantmaking decisions. No evidence is offered that the modeling work will lead to automated funding choices.
For MNX, the thread gives examples of markets—AI company stock futures, company revenue and Epoch Capabilities Index targets—but does not describe the platform’s terms, safeguards, market activity or regulatory status. Its comparison of Anthropic-related prices is not accompanied by contract definitions or timestamps. For Common Notes, the post outlines a mix of AI and user-written notes, user voting and a browser extension, but does not provide details on moderation, accuracy, availability or adoption. These points remain unreported in the source post.
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Surveys and Meetups Ahead
Readers interested in the AI grantmaking project can take the survey on utility weights and, if they have time, the alternate survey asking them to predict the author’s answers. The thread says more election guides may appear in the following week, while the author is still considering whether a Bay Area guide is possible. The post lists the San Francisco mail-in registration deadline as the end of Monday, but readers should check current official election information for applicable requirements.
The next scheduled in-person event named in the post is the Bay Area meetup at Mox in San Francisco on October 24 at 1 p.m. The thread points readers to the linked pages for details on other meetup changes, MNX and Common Notes. It does not give dates for further project updates or say when additional information will be published.
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Key Questions
What is Open Thread 456?
It is Astral Codex Ten’s weekly open discussion post, paired in this edition with announcements about meetups, election resources and AI-related projects.
What does the AI grantmaking survey ask?
The main survey asks knowledgeable respondents to assign utility weights to about 80 AI safety accomplishments. An alternate version asks people to predict how the post’s author would answer the main survey.
When and where is the Bay Area meetup?
The post lists it for Saturday, October 24, at 1 p.m. at Mox, 1680 Mission St. in San Francisco. It says a fuller announcement may follow.
What are MNX and Common Notes?
The post describes MNX as a real-money prediction market covering AI-related stocks, revenues and other targets. Common Notes is Goodheart Labs’ project for adding community-style notes across web content using AI, user contributions, voting and a browser extension.
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